In an awards season unlike any other™, Wednesday’s Golden Globes nominations signal that, finally, the heat is on. Televised awards shows (the only instiutions that keep me breathing) are around the corner.
The Hollywood Foreign Press Association is a notoriously fickle, greedy, often unpredictable group. As somebody who is notoriously fickle, greedy and often unpredictable myself, I feel perfectly suited to predict whatever the hell they might do!
Film! Television! Attempting to cobble together a list of Original Songs!
Here we Globe (sorry).
BEST MOTION PICTURE - DRAMA (in order of likelihood)
Nomadland
The Trial of the Chicago 7
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Da 5 Bloods
Promising Young Woman
The top three feel pretty sturdy, I think. Da 5 Bloods is a little risky, but it has been picking up momentum and it feels like something that gets in after all. The fifth spot is wildly up in the air, but I’m going with PYW as a wild card pick ahead of more traditional awards fare like Mank and The Father. Writer/director Emerald Fennell’s background helps and one of the buzziest movies of the year sneaks in.
BEST MOTION PICTURE - MUSICAL/COMEDY
Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
Hamilton
Palm Springs
The Prom
Emma
There’s a possibility that Borat goes 3 for 3 in the Musical/Comedy categories, which is…wild. But here we are. I think there’s a chance they completely ignore Hamilton, but in another year where these categories are pretty weak, it provides the chance for a bit of heft. Emma has managed to stay somewhat in the conversation throughout the year, and I think Anya Taylor-Joy’s star-making year helps it grab the final spot.
BEST ACTOR - MOTION PICTURE DRAMA
Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Delroy Lindo, Da 5 Bloods
Riz Ahmed, Sound of Metal
Anthony Hopkins, The Father
Gary Oldman, Mank
I’m almost willing to call this category completely locked, but for the sake of not comprising my sweet baby Riz’s chances, I won’t.
BEST ACTRESS - MOTION PICTURE DRAMA
Viola Davis, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Frances McDormand, Nomadland
Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman
Vanessa Kirby, Pieces of a Woman
Sophia Loren, The Life Ahead
The top four feels solid and then it’s a crapshoot for the fifth slot. It feels very anti-Globes to go for Loren ahead of somebody like Zendaya for Malcolm and Marie, but Loren has been out there campaigning as best an 86-year-old can. I think they reward her with a nomination.
BEST ACTOR - MOTION PICTURE MUSICAL/COMEDY
Sacha Baron Cohen, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
Lin-Manuel Miranda, Hamilton
Andy Samberg, Palm Springs
Dev Patel, The Personal History of David Copperfield
Pete Davidson, The King of Staten Island
If they’re really go for Hamilton, Leslie Odom Jr. can get in here. But I think they’ll cap it at LMM. I refuse to entertain the idea of James Corden getting nominated for The Prom, so that’s that on that. Moving on.
BEST ACTRESS - MOTION PICTURE MUSICAL/COMEDY
Maria Bakalova, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
Meryl Streep, The Prom
Michelle Pfeiffer, French Exit
Anya Taylor-Joy, Emma
Cristin Milioti, Palm Springs
I’m going all-in on Palm Springs (and I sincerely hope it happens). Bakalova was bumped to Lead here, which only benefits her chances. Streep is an easy check off, Pfeiffer’s nomination is the prize and ATJ picks up her first of two nominations.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR - MOTION PICTURE
Leslie Odom Jr., One Night In Miami
Sacha Baron Cohen, The Trial of the Chicago 7
Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah
Chadwick Boseman, Da 5 Bloods
Paul Raci, Sound of Metal
This could go a million different ways. While I think Odom Jr. misses for Hamilton, he feels pretty certain here. On the flip side, SBC does secure a double nomination and there’s a strong chance he could win both. The other three spots are tough, and I think a lot of it has to do with how much they love The Trial of the Chicago 7. It doesn’t really feel like Globes catnip, but if so, names like Rylance or Langella could knock out Boseman and/or Raci. But I think they also double nominate Boseman and reward Raci for his fantastic performance.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS - MOTION PICTURE
Amanda Seyfried, Mank
Youn Yuh-Jung, Minari
Olivia Colman, The Father
Ellen Burstyn, Pieces of a Woman
Glenn Close, Hillbilly Elegy
I feel good about these five. Hillbilly Elegy remains one of the worst things I have ever been subjected to watching, but it’s a tough year for the category and I think Glenn is probably getting in without the added competition from Bakalova. She better hope so, or else Oscar feels very unlikely. There’s no real frontrunner here, and with Mank floundering a bit, Seyfreid’s hold on the top spot feels tenuous, but whoever ends up winning the Globe on February 28th will be doing their Oscar chances a big service.
BEST DIRECTOR - MOTION PICTURE
Chloe Zhao, Nomadland
Aaron Sorkin, The Trial of the Chicago 7
Spike Lee, Da 5 Bloods
George C. Wolfe, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Lee Isaac Chung, Minari
This is a bloodbath. Wolfe’s movie is no director’s showcase, but I have a feeling they’re going for him for some reason. I think Minari gets a bit of a boost from the controversy surrounding its category placement this year, which is enough for Chung to grab the final spot.
BEST SCREENPLAY - MOTION PICTURE
The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Aaron Sorkin)
Nomadland (Chloe Zhao)
Promising Young Woman (Emerald Fennell)
Minari (Lee Isaac Chung)
One Night In Miami (Kemp Powers)
Somehow, this feels like even more of a bloodbath. What’s worse than a bloodbath? A bloodshower? A bloodwave? Listen, there’s lots of blood. The Globes combine their Screenplay category, whereas the Oscars differentiate between Original and Adapted, so it’s a crowded field even in a year like this. It might be unwise to neglect David Fincher’s Mank in both Directing and Screenplay (let alone Picture), but it feels like any sense of lingering sentiment has dissipated, leading the way for another nomination for Chung and a nod for Miami.
BEST PICTURE - ANIMATED
Soul
Wolfwalkers
Over The Moon
Onward
The Croods: A New Age
Soul and Wolfwalkers are the only two in contention for the win, even after Missing Link beat Toy Story 4 and Frozen II last year. The other three can be happy to be invited to the party.
BEST PICTURE - FOREIGN LANGUAGE
Minari
Bucarau
Another Round
The Life Ahead
Dear Comrades!
Minari should be more than able to take this in a cakewalk. As for the rest? Spots 2-4 were based on a bit of insight, whereas the inclusion of Dear Comrades! was purely based on the fact that I like titles involving punctuation.
BEST SCORE - MOTION PICTURE
Mank (Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross)
Tenet (Ludwig Göransson)
The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Daniel Pemberton)
Soul (Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross)
Minari (Emile Mosseri)
Two nominations for Reznor and Ross feels like a bit of a stretch, but their work on both Mank and Soul is so good and, more importantly, so different. I think they get in for both. Hey, remember Tenet!
BEST ORIGINAL SONG - MOTION PICTURE
“Speak Now,” One Night In Miami - Leslie Odom, Jr. and Sam Ashworth (performed by Leslie Odom Jr.)
“Fight For You,” Judas and the Black Messiah - H.E.R. (H.E.R.)
“Tigress and Tweed,” The United States vs. Billie Holiday - Andra Day and Raphael Saadiq (Andra Day)
“Husavik,” Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga - Fat Max Gsus, Savan Kotecha and Rickard Göransson (Will Ferrell and Molly Sandén)
“Carried Me With You,” Onward - Brandi Carlile, Phil Hanseroth and Tim Hanseroth (Brandi Carlile)
Cobbled together.
BEST TELEVISION SERIES - DRAMA
The Crown
The Mandalorian
Ozark
Lovecraft Country
Bridgerton
I think Bridgeton is big, buzzy and fresh enough to get nominated. The Globes love shiny, new things. This field of five is enough to give just about every television viewer in existence a rooting interest.
BEST TELEVISION SERIES - MUSICAL/COMEDY
Ted Lasso
Schitt’s Creek
The Flight Attendant
Ramy
What We Do In The Shadows
I expect Schitt’s Creek to pick up a nominations haul, but I don’t think we’ll be seeing a repeat of its Emmys dominance when it comes to wins. Ted Lasso is the new kid on the block and I think it wins Series and a trophy for its leading man. The Flight Attendant is also in the Globes wheelhouse (re: new), they rewarded Ramy’s titular Ramy with Lead Actor last year so I think they’ll go all in for Series this time around and What We Do In The Shadows feels beloved enough within a certain block to also get in.
BEST TELEVISION LIMITED SERIES OR MOVIE
The Queen’s Gambit
Unorthodox
Small Axe
Normal People
I May Destroy You
Picking both Normal People and I May Destroy You to both get nominated might be a bit of wishful thinking, but SOMETIMES I JUST WANT TO HAVE NICE THINGS.
BEST TELEVISION ACTOR - DRAMA
Josh O’Connor, The Crown
Matthew Rhys, Perry Mason
Jonathan Majors, Lovecraft Country
Jason Bateman, Ozark
Pedro Pascal, The Mandalorian
To no one’s surprise, I think The Crown will absolutely clean up across the board. Rhys and Majors fill the “new!” quota, while Pascal provides another chance for them to seem cool. I remain uncertain if they will go for Ozark at all, but Bateman feels like a safe enough pick to fill up the category.
BEST TELEVISION ACTRESS - DRAMA
Emma Corrin, The Crown
Olivia Colman, The Crown
Jurnee Smollett, Lovecraft Country
Phoebe Dynevor, Bridgerton
Sarah Paulson, Ratched
I don’t think Corrin and Colman will have a problem both getting in. After that, three rookies feels like a risk (particularly Paulson), but if you’re not going to take some risks with your Golden Globes predictions, what’s the point????? God, I’m so alone.
BEST TELEVISION ACTOR - MUSICAL/COMEDY
Jason Sudeikis, Ted Lasso
Ramy Youssef, Ramy
Nicholas Hoult, The Great
Eugene Levy, Schitt’s Creek
Matt Berry, What We Do In The Shadows
Ah, the aforementioned titular Lasso. Sudeikis is locked and the other four feel close. A Levy snub for somebody fresher is tempting, but there really isn’t anybody.
BEST TELEVISION ACTRESS - MUSICAL/COMEDY
Kaley Cuoco, The Flight Attendant
Christina Applegate, Dead To Me
Catherine O’Hara, Schitt’s Creek
Elle Fanning, The Great
Lily Collins, Emily In Paris
This is far more competitive than Actor. It feels odd to predict both Hoult and Fanning to get nominated, but for The Great to miss Series. But please remember what I said about risks!!!! Nominating Emily In Paris is stupid enough for the Globes, and I hope it happens because it’s fun when people get mad.
BEST TELEVISION ACTOR - LIMITED SERIES OR MOVIE
Paul Mescal, Normal People
Mark Ruffalo, I Know This Much Is True
Hugh Grant, The Undoing
Ethan Hawke, The Good Lord Bird
Hugh Jackman, Bad Education
I’m putting my sweet baby Paul first here in order to manifest the nomination. I think he’s probably safe, but you can never be too careful when it comes to these things.
BEST TELEVISION ACTRESS - LIMITED SERIES OR MOVIE
Anya Taylor-Joy, The Queen’s Gambit
Shira Haas, Unorthodox
Michaela Coel, I May Destroy You
Nicole Kidman, The Undoing
Cate Blanchett, Mrs. America
Cate in fifth might look odd, but I’m not really anticipating much love for Mrs. America from the HFPA. It’s quite a youth movement at the top of the rankings to offset our two Australian queens. I would love to see Daisy Edgar-Jones get some love for Normal People, too, but I fear the field is too stacked.
BEST TELEVISION ACTOR - SUPPORTING
Mahershala Ali, Ramy
John Boyega, Small Axe
Daniel Levy, Schitt’s Creek
Bill Camp, The Queen’s Gambit
Tom Pelphrey, Ozark
Ah yes, the dreaded TV supporting categories at the Golden Globes, where every single show gets thrown into a blender and we’re left to make sense of the mess. I do feel oddly secure about the top three, despite security in this category mostly being a fool’s errand. I think they’ll really go for Gambit, so Camp gets in. Pelphrey feels like a wild card pick, but he’s also a name who I can see popping up on nomination morning and thinking “of course, you idiot!” And I don’t want to be an idiot. Not anymore.
BEST TELEVISION ACTRESS - SUPPORTING
Gillian Anderson, The Crown
Marielle Heller, The Queen’s Gambit
Julia Garner, Ozark
Annie Murphy, Schitt’s Creek
Uzo Aduba, Mrs. America
Outside of Gillian Anderson (who I think is winning quite handily), this is another blender mess. If they do go gaga for Gambit (fun!), Heller makes a lot of sense. Garner is the two-time defending winner at the Emmys, which doesn't necessarily mean much here, but if I’m predicting Pelphrey, you have to like Garner’s chances, too. On the same token, if I’m predicting all of the Schitt’s gang to pop up, might as well go with Murphy, as well. And then it’s Miss Uzo, who the Globes nominated twice for Orange Is The New Black and coming off the Emmy win for Mrs. America. Sure!
The 78th Golden Globe Awards will be presented on Sunday, February 28th.